Kenya is a net agricultural exporter — by a thin margin.
Kenya exports roughly $3.8B of agricultural goods and imports $2.2B, leaving a net surplus of about $1.6B. Tea alone covers nearly the whole surplus. Behind the headline number, Kenya is heavily import-dependent for wheat, palm oil, and fertiliser — inputs that underpin domestic food security.
Tea carries the whole trade portfolio.
Tea ($1.4B) and cut flowers ($0.8B) together account for nearly 60% of Kenya's agricultural export earnings. Everything else — coffee, vegetables, fruits, avocado — matters, but the balance of payments depends on these two products grown in the western Rift and central highlands.
Tea earns more than the next four combined.
At $1.4B, tea export earnings exceed the combined value of cut flowers, vegetables, fruits and coffee. The concentration is extraordinary by any international comparison.
Headline indicators
Tea export destinations
Pakistan is Kenya's single largest tea buyer.
Pakistan takes 38% of Kenyan tea exports, followed by Egypt (19%) and the UK (11%). The concentration in South Asia and the Middle East exposes earnings to currency and political risk.
Europe dominates — with the Netherlands as the hub.
While the Netherlands receives 62% of flower shipments, it re-exports most of them. The real consumer is spread across Europe, but Dutch auction prices set the global market rate.
Imports — the hidden dependency
Fertiliser is the largest single import.
At $690M, fertiliser imports exceed wheat ($600M). Kenya's agricultural competitiveness is structurally dependent on imported inputs — a vulnerability the subsidy programme attempts to offset.
Wheat and vegetable oils are major import dependencies.
Kenya produces only 10% of its wheat and 5% of its vegetable oils domestically. Rice (32%) and sugar (70%) are partially covered. Beef and milk are fully self-sufficient.
Overall trade balance
The surplus is real but narrowing.
The net balance has held around $1.6–1.7B for five years, but import costs are rising faster than export earnings — driven by fertiliser, palm oil and wheat prices.